−9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $6K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
51%now
Snapshot ·
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22?
51%
This is the market-implied chance of “Yes” as recorded at 2026-11-15 08:20 UTC. It does not change: this page is a permanent record for citation.
Big moves before this moment
+12pts · 1d
Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Source ↗
51%now
+9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
51%now
Cite this snapshot
Prediction markets put the chance of uS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 22 at 51% as of 2026-11-15 08:20 UTC (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-22/at/2026-11-15-0820).Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for information only. Information only. Not financial or betting advice.