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Prediction markets, explained
Short guides to how Kalshi and Polymarket work, how to read their odds and how far to trust them.
What are prediction markets?A plain-English guide: how prediction market contracts work, why their prices read as probabilities, who runs the big platforms, and what moves the odds.How to read prediction market oddsWhat a 62¢ price means, why we talk in points, how bid, ask and volume change how much to trust a number, and how to compare Kalshi and Polymarket.Kalshi vs PolymarketHow the two largest prediction markets differ: regulation, who can use them, currency, fees and the kinds of markets they list. Updated for 2026.Is Polymarket legal in the US? And Kalshi?Yes, through CFTC-regulated exchanges; sports contracts are blocked in a few states. Which states, the court split, the CFTC rules, taxes and what is still open.Are prediction markets accurate?Evidence from a 2026 PNAS study of about one million contracts and a Vanderbilt study of the 2024 election, and how to use market odds sensibly.