Kalshi vs Polymarket
By the Callquake team · Published · 2 min read
Last reviewed . Laws and platform rules change; check the sources linked below.
Kalshi and Polymarket are the two prediction markets most people search for. They often list the same questions, but they are built differently, and that explains why their prices do not always match.
| Kalshi | Polymarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Oversight | CFTC-designated contract market since November 2020 | Global platform; US arm (Polymarket US) runs on the CFTC-licensed exchange acquired from QCEX |
| Who can use it | US residents; sports contracts are contested in some states | Global platform bars US customers and is blocked in several countries; Polymarket US is a separate, more limited platform |
| Money | US dollars | Dollar-pegged stablecoin on the global platform |
| Contracts | Yes/no, 1¢ to 99¢, settles at $1 or $0 | Yes/no shares, settle at $1 or $0 |
| Fees | Trading fee that is highest near 50¢ and lowest near the extremes | Varies by market; check Polymarket’s current fee page |
| Known for | Sports (up to 80% of volume in some months), economics, politics | Politics, crypto, world events, pop culture |
Sources: Tech Insider, “What is Kalshi?” (2026); The Block, July 2025; The Block, April 28, 2026; Ranktracker (2026).
Why their prices differ
- Different traders. Each platform has its own users, and they do not always agree.
- Different rules. A “rate cut in December” market can resolve on different sources or dates on each platform. Always open the rules.
- Different costs and access. Fees, deposit methods and who is allowed to trade all shift where prices settle.
- Limited arbitrage. Moving money between platforms is slow or impossible for many people, so gaps can last.
How Callquake uses both
When a question trades on both, we show each price side by side and a combined chance weighted by 24-hour volume, plus the gap in points. We only pair two markets after checking that their rules match. See our methodology.
Legal status
US courts and state regulators are still deciding how far federal oversight of event contracts overrides state gambling law, especially for sports. Outside the US, several countries block Polymarket. Callquake shows odds everywhere for information, but only shows links to trade where that is allowed. This page is not legal advice.