Track record
How often are prediction markets right?
For every market we tracked to the end, we compare the price shown 24 hours before close with what actually happened. The first resolved markets appear here within days of launch.
Calibration
If markets are well calibrated, things priced at 70% should happen about 70% of the time.
Not enough resolved markets yet.
Updated daily as markets settle. Prices are the volume-weighted “Yes” price across Kalshi and Polymarket. Methodology · What the research says about accuracy.