Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
As of , polymarket traders put the chance of “Yes” at 15%, up 2 points in 24 hours.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
No big moves recorded yet. Follow this market and we will tell you when it swings.
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
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Questions about this market
What are the odds of will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election right now?
As of 08:10 UTC on November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders price “Yes” at 15%, up 2 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 15¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 15 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 15% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election change?
No move of 5 points or more has been recorded yet. When one happens, it appears above with the headline that likely caused it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on November 8, 2028. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 15%
- 7-day range
- 12% – 16%
- Big moves recorded
- 0
- Venues
- Polymarket $168K 24h volume
- Closes
- November 8, 2028
- Tracked since
- November 12, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Polymarket, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election at 15% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).