+9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
62%now
Snapshot ·
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4.5 percentage points?
61%
This is the market-implied chance of “Yes” as recorded at 2026-11-15 08:00 UTC. It does not change: this page is a permanent record for citation.
Big moves before this moment
+12pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
62%now
+10pts · 1h
Related news: Peltola vs. Sullivan not alone: 24 Alaska races still too close to call Source ↗
62%now
+8pts · 1h
Alaskans voted to keep ranked choice voting. Source ↗
62%now
Cite this snapshot
Prediction markets put the chance of will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4.5 percentage points at 61% as of 2026-11-15 08:00 UTC (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mary-peltola-in-the-u-s-senate-election-in-4/at/2026-11-15-0800).Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for information only. Information only. Not financial or betting advice.