−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $5K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
35%now
Snapshot ·
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?
35%
This is the market-implied chance of “Yes” as recorded at 2026-11-15 08:10 UTC. It does not change: this page is a permanent record for citation.
Big moves before this moment
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $6K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
35%now
Cite this snapshot
Prediction markets put the chance of uS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15 at 35% as of 2026-11-15 08:10 UTC (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15/at/2026-11-15-0810).Prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for information only. Information only. Not financial or betting advice.