US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?
As of , polymarket traders put the chance of “Yes” at 35%, unchanged over 24 hours. The latest big move (−8 pts on November 13, 2026) had no news story we could tie it to.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of uS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15 right now?
As of 17:30 UTC on November 13, 2026, Polymarket traders price “Yes” at 35%, unchanged over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 35¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 35 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 35% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of uS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15 change?
The latest big move was −8 pts on November 13, 2026, and we found no news story behind it. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on November 15, 2026. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 35%
- 7-day range
- 32% – 47%
- Big moves recorded
- 2 (latest November 13, 2026)
- Venues
- Polymarket $80K 24h volume
- Closes
- November 15, 2026
- Tracked since
- November 9, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Polymarket, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of uS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15 at 35% as of November 13, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/us-x-iran-effective-ceasefire-by-november-15).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).