Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at 85%, down 6 points in 24 hours.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
No big moves recorded yet. Follow this market and we will tell you when it swings.
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of will 2026 be the hottest year on record right now?
As of 08:10 UTC on November 15, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at 85%, down 6 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 85¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 85 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 85% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will 2026 be the hottest year on record change?
No move of 5 points or more has been recorded yet. When one happens, it appears above with the headline that likely caused it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on January 1, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 85%
- 7-day range
- 85% – 95%
- Big moves recorded
- 0
- Venues
- Kalshi $24K 24h volume
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 12, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will 2026 be the hottest year on record at 85% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-2026-be-the-hottest-year-on-record).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).