Fed rate decision odds (November 2026)
Prediction markets on what the Federal Reserve does at its next meeting: cut, hold or hike, and by how much. Prices below are what traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are paying right now, refreshed every 2 minutes.
Next scheduled date: December 9, 2026.
Live Fed rate decision markets
Prices checked every 2 minutes. Click a market for the chart and every big move with the headline behind it.
What moves Fed rate decision odds
Inflation prints (CPI, PCE), the monthly jobs report, speeches by Fed officials and the Fed’s own projections move these odds the most. A single data release can swing the cut-or-hold market by 20 points in an hour; the move and the headline behind it appear on each market’s page.
How to read these odds
Each “Yes” contract pays $1 if the event happens. A price of 70¢ means the crowd implies about a 70% chance. Odds are a live estimate, not a forecast, and they can be wrong; see how accurate prediction markets have been and how to read them.
Information only. Not financial or betting advice.