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Senate Alaska: prediction market odds and what moved them

11 markets on Kalshi and Polymarket are about Senate Alaska, with prices checked every two minutes. The biggest move of the last 7 days was +23 pts on “Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4 percentage points?”: Peltola grows lead in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race.

All Senate Alaska markets

Market	Chance now	Biggest move, 7 days
Will Democratics win the Senate race in Alaska?	>99%	–
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	>99%	–
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?	>99%	–
Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate race?	>99%	–
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	<1%	–
Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?	<1%	–
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4.5 percentage points?	62%	+12 pts
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3.5 percentage points?	>99%	+23 pts
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?	99%	+14 pts
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3 percentage points?	99%	+8 pts
Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4 percentage points?	97%	+23 pts

A market's chance is its latest price on Kalshi or Polymarket. Information only. Not financial or betting advice.

What moved, and why

All moves →

+9pts · 1h

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4.5 percentage points?

NEWPolitics52% → 61%3 h ago

We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.

62%now

+8pts · 1h

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3 percentage points?

NEWPolitics91% → 99%22 h ago

Peltola grows lead in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race. Source ↗

99%now

+14pts · 1d

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the 2026 Alaska Senate election be between 3% and 6%?

NEWPolitics85% → 99%23 h ago

Peltola grows lead in Alaska’s Senate race. Source ↗

99%now

+23pts · 1d

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 4 percentage points?

NEWPolitics68% → 90%1 d ago

Peltola grows lead in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race. Source ↗

97%now

+8pts · 1h

Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3.5 percentage points?

NEWPolitics90% → 98%1 d ago

We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.

>99%now

This page is put together automatically from the markets that name Senate Alaska. Explanations come from public headlines and may be wrong; each one links to its source. How it works → · Free alerts on Telegram →