Will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3.5 percentage points?
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at >99%, up 2 points in 24 hours. The latest big move (+8 pts on November 14, 2026) had no news story we could tie it to.
Chance over time
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Why it moved
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Questions about this market
What are the odds of will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3.5 percentage points right now?
As of 18:40 UTC on November 14, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at >99%, up 2 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 99¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 99 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 99% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3.5 percentage points change?
The latest big move was +8 pts on November 14, 2026, and we found no news story behind it. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on November 3, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- >99%
- 7-day range
- 57% – >99%
- Big moves recorded
- 4 (latest November 14, 2026)
- Venues
- Kalshi $16K 24h volume
- Closes
- November 3, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 12, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will the margin of victory for Mary Peltola in the U.S. Senate election in Alaska be at least 3.5 percentage points at >99% as of November 14, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-mary-peltola-in-the-u-s-senate-election-in).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:00 UTC).