Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31?
As of , polymarket traders put the chance of “Yes” at 47%, down 1 point in 24 hours. The latest big move (−15 pts on November 14, 2026) had no news story we could tie it to.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31 right now?
As of 23:20 UTC on November 14, 2026, Polymarket traders price “Yes” at 47%, down 1 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 47¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 47 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 47% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31 change?
The latest big move was −15 pts on November 14, 2026, and we found no news story behind it. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on January 1, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 47%
- 7-day range
- 44% – 66%
- Big moves recorded
- 2 (latest November 14, 2026)
- Venues
- Polymarket $87K 24h volume
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 13, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Polymarket, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31 at 47% as of November 14, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/howard-lutnick-out-as-secretary-of-commerce-by-december-31).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:00 UTC).