Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?
As of , polymarket traders put the chance of “Yes” at 73%, down 4 points in 24 hours. Latest big move (+12 pts on November 10, 2026): Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
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By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15 right now?
As of 08:20 UTC on November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders price “Yes” at 73%, down 4 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 73¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 73 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 73% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15 change?
The latest big move was +12 pts on November 10, 2026: Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on December 16, 2026. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 73%
- 7-day range
- 62% – 82%
- Big moves recorded
- 2 (latest November 10, 2026)
- Venues
- Polymarket $107K 24h volume
- Closes
- December 16, 2026
- Tracked since
- November 7, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Polymarket, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15 at 73% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/israel-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-december-15).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:20 UTC).