Daily recap · · weekly recaps →
What moved prediction markets on November 10, 2026
We recorded 86 big moves on November 10, 2026: 36 up and 50 down. The largest was “Will Josh Downs be traded before Dec 1, 2026?”, up 49 points (51% → >99%). Politics had the most activity, with 32 moves.
+49pts · 1h
Chiefs trade for Josh Downs. Source ↗
>99%now
−44pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
+30pts · 1h
Vikings identified Kirk Cousins as trade target. Source ↗
>99%now
+25pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
−21pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
5%now
−20pts · 1d
Bacon plans to vote no on Hegseth impeachment. Source ↗
18%now
+20pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
73%now
−19pts · 1d
Bacon plans to vote no on Hegseth impeachment. Source ↗
18%now
+19pts · 1h
Anthropic sets lower IPO price range. Source ↗
23%now
−18pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
14%now
−18pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
5%now
+18pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
97%now
−17pts · 1d
U.S. inflation rose stronger than expected. Source ↗
4%now
−17pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
18%now
−17pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
18%now
+17pts · 1d
U.S. inflation rose stronger than expected. Source ↗
95%now
+17pts · 1d
Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Source ↗
72%now
−16pts · 1d
Traders price in fed rate hike for December. Source ↗
4%now
+16pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
3%now
+16pts · 1d
Treasury yield rises as inflation data drives rate hike expectations. Source ↗
95%now
−16pts · 1d
Treasury yield rises as inflation data drives rate hike expectations. Source ↗
4%now
+16pts · 1d
Treasury yield rises as inflation data drives rate hike expectations. Source ↗
95%now
−15pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
<1%now
−15pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
26%now
+16pts · 1h
Tillis leans toward impeaching Hegseth. Source ↗
11%now
−15pts · 1d
Ernst questions Hegseth's truthfulness. Source ↗
3%now
−15pts · 1d
Fed's Waller opens door to rate hike. Source ↗
4%now
+15pts · 1d
Fed’s Waller opens door to rate hike. Source ↗
95%now
−15pts · 1d
Fed's Waller opens door to rate hike. Source ↗
4%now
−15pts · 1d
Tillis leans toward not impeaching Hegseth. Source ↗
3%now
+15pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
3%now
−14pts · 1d
Trump defends Pentagon chief Hegseth. Source ↗
5%now
−14pts · 1d
Fed Governor Waller sees December hike likely. Source ↗
4%now
−14pts · 1d
Johnson blasts push to oust Hegseth. Source ↗
5%now
−14pts · 1d
Trump escalated Iran war to choke off Tehran's trade. Source ↗
7%now
−14pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
<1%now
+14pts · 1d
Fed's Waller opens door to rate hike. Source ↗
95%now
+14pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
−13pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
90%now
+13pts · 1h
White House vows to press ahead with tariffs. Source ↗
99%now
+13pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
23%now
−13pts · 1d
Treasury yield rises as inflation data drives rate hike expectations. Source ↗
4%now
−12pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
−12pts · 1d
Bacon plans to vote no on Hegseth impeachment. Source ↗
5%now
−12pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
11%now
−12pts · 1d
Trump seeks to choke off Tehran’s trade. Source ↗
10%now
−12pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
<1%now
+12pts · 1d
Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Source ↗
51%now
+12pts · 1d
Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Source ↗
72%now
−12pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
18%now
−12pts · 1d
Trump defends Hegseth. Source ↗
18%now
+12pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
90%now
−12pts · 1h
House GOP shelves Pete Hegseth impeachment articles. Source ↗
18%now
+12pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
−11pts · 1h
Vance denounces Hegseth impeachment push. Source ↗
11%now
−11pts · 1h
Trump praises Hegseth. Source ↗
5%now
−11pts · 1h
Fed Governor Waller sees December hike likely. Source ↗
4%now
−11pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
15%now
+10pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
+10pts · 1h
Fed Governor Waller sees December hike likely. Source ↗
87%now
−10pts · 1h
Bacon plans to vote no on Hegseth impeachment. Source ↗
3%now
−10pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
99%now
+10pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
<1%now
+9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
−9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
99%now
−9pts · 1h
Jim Jordan becomes new House GOP leader. Source ↗
93%now
−9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
16%now
−9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
8%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
+9pts · 1h
Treasury yield rises as inflation data and comments drive rate hike expectations. Source ↗
54%now
−8pts · 1h
Bacon plans to vote no on Hegseth impeachment. Source ↗
5%now
−8pts · 1h
Warnock ducks questions about backing Schumer. Source ↗
92%now
−8pts · 1h
Trump is closing in on a new press secretary. Source ↗
23%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
39%now
+8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
<1%now
+8pts · 1h
U.S. inflation rose stronger than expected. Source ↗
9%now
+8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
>99%now
+8pts · 1h
Fed Governor Waller sees December hike likely. Source ↗
95%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
2%now
+8pts · 1h
Jaguars and entire NFC North favored to make playoffs. Source ↗
70%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
56%now
+8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
62%now
+8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
85%now
+8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
44%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
11%now
+8pts · 1h
Tillis leans toward impeaching Hegseth. Source ↗
5%now
Call it results
15% at lock → 16% at midnight UTC
85% at lock → 86% at midnight UTC
16% at lock → 15% at midnight UTC