−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $5K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
35%now
Topic
World prediction markets: live odds and what moved them
We track 14 world markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, updated every two minutes. In the last 7 days, 10 of them had a big move. The largest was −8 pts on “US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 15?”.
Most traded world markets
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?>99%▲1 24hIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22?93%▲1 24hStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?6%±0 24hWill Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?18%▼1 24hUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?7%▼1 24hIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through December 15?73%▼4 24hWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?8%▼1 24hUS announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?<1%±0 24hIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?86%±0 24hUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?19%▼3 24hUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?35%▲10 24hIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 13?>99%±0 24hWill Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?30%▼12 24hIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through November 18?97%
Recent big moves
All world moves →−8pts · 1h
Trump closed down Iran negotiations. Source ↗
86%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $5K of large orders in that window, mostly on YES.
93%now
−8pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $6K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
35%now
−9pts · 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $6K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
51%now
−12pts · 1d
Trump seeks to choke off Tehran’s trade. Source ↗
10%now
−14pts · 1d
Trump escalated Iran war to choke off Tehran's trade. Source ↗
7%now
−18pts · 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
14%now
+12pts · 1d
Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Source ↗
73%now
+12pts · 1d
Trump says Iran war to end fairly soon. Source ↗
51%now