Will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15 before Jan 1, 2027?
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at >99%. The latest big move (+38 pts on November 14, 2026) followed the headline “SpaceX plans to try first-ever catch of Starship rocket from orbit”.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15 before Jan 1, 2027 right now?
As of 04:40 UTC on November 15, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at >99%. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 100¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 100 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 100% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15 before Jan 1, 2027 change?
The latest big move was +38 pts on November 14, 2026: SpaceX plans to try first-ever catch of Starship rocket from orbit. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on January 1, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- >99%
- 7-day range
- 62% – >99%
- Big moves recorded
- 3 (latest November 14, 2026)
- Venues
- Kalshi $44K 24h volume
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 14, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will SpaceX chopsticks catch Starship 15 before Jan 1, 2027 at >99% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-spacex-chopsticks-catch-starship-15-before-jan-1-2027).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:00 UTC).