Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?
As of , polymarket traders put the chance of “Yes” at 9%, up 1 point in 24 hours. Latest big move (+8 pts on November 10, 2026): U.S. inflation rose stronger than expected.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
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By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting right now?
As of 08:10 UTC on November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders price “Yes” at 9%, up 1 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 9¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 9 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 9% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting change?
The latest big move was +8 pts on November 10, 2026: U.S. inflation rose stronger than expected. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on December 9, 2026. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 9%
- 7-day range
- 4% – 13%
- Big moves recorded
- 1 (latest November 10, 2026)
- Venues
- Polymarket $168K 24h volume
- Closes
- December 9, 2026
- Tracked since
- November 10, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Polymarket, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting at 9% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).