Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?

Closes 01 Jan 2028 · Source: Polymarket · updated 6 min ago · prices checked every 2 minutes

23%

1h ±024h −27d +8

As of 08:10 UTC on November 15, 2026, polymarket traders put the chance of “Yes” at 23%, down 2 points in 24 hours. The latest big move (+8 pts on November 11, 2026) had no news story we could tie it to.

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Chance over time

Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.

Why it moved

11 Nov 2026 15:50 UTC · 15% → 24% in 1h

We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $22K of large orders in that window, mostly on YES.

+8 pts

11 Nov 2026 13:10 UTC · 34% → 17% in 1d

Anthropic said to raise IPO valuation. Source ↗

−17 pts

11 Nov 2026 01:14 UTC · 24% → 16% in 1h

Jim Cramer praises Anthropic's growth. Source ↗ 🐋 $4K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.

−8 pts

10 Nov 2026 15:12 UTC · 15% → 28% in 1d

We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.

+13 pts

10 Nov 2026 13:10 UTC · 15% → 34% in 1h

Anthropic sets lower IPO price range. Source ↗

+19 pts

Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.

By venue

Polymarket $119K

23%

Polymarket rules ↗

Questions about this market

What are the odds of will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day right now?

As of 08:10 UTC on November 15, 2026, Polymarket traders price “Yes” at 23%, down 2 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.

How do I read a 23¢ contract?

A “Yes” contract costs about 23 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 23% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.

Why did the odds of will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day change?

The latest big move was +8 pts on November 11, 2026, and we found no news story behind it. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.

When does this market resolve?

Trading closes on January 1, 2028. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.

Key facts

Market-implied chance: 23%
7-day range: 11% – 28%
Big moves recorded: 5 (latest November 11, 2026)
Venues: Polymarket $119K 24h volume
Closes: January 1, 2028
Tracked since: November 8, 2026
Last updated: 08:10 UTC, November 15, 2026

How to read these odds · How we calculate this

Cite this market

Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Polymarket, shown here for information only.

Prediction markets put the chance of will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day at 23% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-anthropic-s-market-cap-be-less-than-1-25t-at-market-close-on-ipo-day).

Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).