Steady Polymarket wallets: profit that grew in a straight line
Size is not skill. These are the wallets whose profit rose steadily over the last 1 year, ranked by how straight the line is, with the worst fall along the way.
| # | Wallet | Profit, 1 year | Worst drawdown | Months in profit | Steadiness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RN1 Sports only | +$12M 1.8% of $709M traded | −$329K profit 38× the drawdown | 12 of 12 | 99 |
Steadiness (0 to 100) is how close the profit curve is to a straight rising line. Worst drawdown is the largest fall from a peak inside the period. Profit is the result of the positions with fees taken out, without rewards or rebates, as Polymarket reports it for the wallet. To qualify for 1 year: history for the whole period, at least $20,000 of profit, 120 trades, 60 days with trades, 2 of every 3 months in profit, steadiness of 60 or more and profit of at least 2 times the worst drawdown.
High turnover is a wallet whose profit is under 1.5% of more than $5 million traded in the period, the pattern of market making or arbitrage rather than of calling outcomes. They are left out of this list (1 in this view); choose Shown to see them. No sports and Sports only go by where the wallet has at least 80% of its dollars (open positions and the large orders we recorded). Polymarket's international platform only: Kalshi does not publish who trades. Pro members can follow a wallet and get its large orders on Telegram.
A wallet is an address, not a person: one person can use several. Figures count orders of $1,000 or more on the markets we track, and of $10,000 or more on other markets, on Polymarket's international platform, since we started recording. A past record does not predict the next result, and nothing here is a suggestion to follow anyone. To have an address removed from these pages, write to hello@callquake.com. Information only. Not financial or betting advice.
Questions
What is a steady wallet?
A Polymarket wallet whose profit grew in a nearly straight line over the period, instead of coming from one lucky bet. We measure it on the daily profit series Polymarket publishes for every wallet.
How is the steadiness score calculated?
It runs from 0 to 100 and says how close the wallet's profit curve is to a straight rising line (the R² of profit against time). 100 would be the same gain every day; a wallet that made everything in one week scores low.
Which wallets qualify?
Only wallets with history for the whole period, a minimum profit ($5,000 in 90 days), a minimum number of trades and trading days, at least 2 of every 3 months in profit, a steadiness of 60 or more and a profit of at least 2 times the worst drawdown. We watch about 500 wallets, taken from Polymarket's leaderboards and from the large orders we record.
Why is there no ROI?
A return on investment needs the money each wallet put in, and Polymarket does not publish deposits and withdrawals. We show profit against the dollars traded and against the worst drawdown instead, which can be checked.
Does profit include rewards and rebates?
No. We use the result of the positions, with trading fees already taken out. Rewards, rebates and referral income are left out, because they say nothing about being right.
Should I follow these wallets?
This page is information, not a suggestion. A past record does not predict the next result, a wallet is an address and not a person, and the same person can use several wallets.