Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16%?
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at 92%, up 2 points in 24 hours. The latest big move (+8 pts on November 12, 2026) followed the headline “House Dem misses Hegseth impeachment vote because of major medical procedure one week after Election Day”.
Chance over time
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Why it moved
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Questions about this market
What are the odds of will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16% right now?
As of 17:26 UTC on November 14, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at 92%, up 2 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 92¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 92 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 92% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16% change?
The latest big move was +8 pts on November 12, 2026: House Dem misses Hegseth impeachment vote because of major medical procedure one week after Election Day. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on November 3, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 92%
- 7-day range
- 81% – 92%
- Big moves recorded
- 1 (latest November 12, 2026)
- Venues
- Kalshi $14K 24h volume
- Closes
- November 3, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 10, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 14 and 16% at 92% as of November 14, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-the-democratic-margin-of-victory-in-the-2026-u-s-house-of-representatives).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:20 UTC).