Will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026?
This market closed on November 14, 2026. Kalshi traders last priced “Yes” at 2%. Latest big move (+9 pts on November 13, 2026): This market follows the weather forecast, which is revised through the day. A swing like this usually reflects a new forecast, not a news story.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026 right now?
As of 20:32 UTC on November 13, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at 2%, unchanged over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 2¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 2 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 2% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026 change?
The latest big move was +9 pts on November 13, 2026: This market follows the weather forecast, which is revised through the day. A swing like this usually reflects a new forecast, not a news story. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on November 14, 2026. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 2%
- 7-day range
- 2% – 82%
- Big moves recorded
- 5 (latest November 13, 2026)
- Venues
- Kalshi $6K 24h volume
- Closes
- November 14, 2026
- Tracked since
- November 13, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will the maximum temperature be <50° on Nov 13, 2026 at 2% as of November 13, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-the-maximum-temperature-be-50-on-nov-13-2026).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).