Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at 47%, down 2 points in 24 hours. The latest big move (−12 pts on November 15, 2026) had no news story we could tie it to.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027 right now?
As of 08:10 UTC on November 15, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at 47%, down 2 points over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 47¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 47 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 47% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027 change?
The latest big move was −12 pts on November 15, 2026, and we found no news story behind it. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on January 1, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 47%
- 7-day range
- 17% – 70%
- Big moves recorded
- 11 (latest November 15, 2026)
- Venues
- Kalshi $35K 24h volume
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 10, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027 at 47% as of November 15, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-howard-lutnick-leaves-secretary-of-commerce-in-before-2027).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:10 UTC).