Will National win the next New Zealand general election?
Closes 31 Dec 2027 · Source: Kalshi · updated 2 d ago · prices checked every 2 minutes
39%
1h ±024h ±07d −53
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at 39%, unchanged over 24 hours. The latest big move (−37 pts on November 12, 2026) had no news story we could tie it to.
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
· 79% → 42% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−37 pts
· 69% → 42% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−27 pts
· 70% → 43% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−26 pts
· 67% → 44% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−23 pts
· 71% → 44% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−26 pts
· 94% → 44% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−50 pts
· 90% → 48% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−42 pts
· 91% → 44% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−47 pts
· 92% → 41% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−51 pts
· 91% → 36% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−55 pts
· 92% → 36% in 1d
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−56 pts
· 82% → 34% in 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $7K of large orders in that window, mostly on NO.
−47 pts
· 68% → 77% in 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $39K of large orders in that window, mostly on YES.
+9 pts
· 71% → 61% in 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $10K of large orders in that window, mostly on YES.
−10 pts
· 93% → 83% in 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.🐋 $232K of large orders in that window, mostly on YES.
−10 pts
· 91% → 81% in 1h
We couldn't tie this move to a news story yet. Swings like this can also come from large trades, rumors or news that hasn't been reported.
−10 pts
Information only. Not financial or betting advice. Not affiliated with Kalshi or Polymarket.
What are the odds of will National win the next New Zealand general election right now?
As of 11:50 UTC on November 13, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at 39%, unchanged over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 39¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 39 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 39% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will National win the next New Zealand general election change?
The latest big move was −37 pts on November 12, 2026, and we found no news story behind it. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on December 31, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will National win the next New Zealand general election at 39% as of November 13, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-national-win-the-next-new-zealand-general-election).