Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027?
As of , kalshi traders put the chance of “Yes” at 15%, unchanged over 24 hours. Latest big move (−18 pts on November 11, 2026): Hegseth impeachment blocked.
Chance over time
Dots mark big moves. Select one to read why it happened.
Why it moved
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By venue
Questions about this market
What are the odds of will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027 right now?
As of 13:00 UTC on November 12, 2026, Kalshi traders price “Yes” at 15%, unchanged over 24 hours. The page refreshes every 2 minutes.
How do I read a 15¢ contract?
A “Yes” contract costs about 15 cents and pays $1 if the event happens, so the market implies roughly a 15% chance. The price is a crowd estimate, not a forecast or a recommendation.
Why did the odds of will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027 change?
The latest big move was −18 pts on November 11, 2026: Hegseth impeachment blocked. Every move we recorded is listed above with the headline behind it.
When does this market resolve?
Trading closes on January 1, 2027. Each venue resolves under its own written rules, linked in the “By venue” section; the odds above are not a prediction of the outcome.
Key facts
- Market-implied chance
- 15%
- 7-day range
- 8% – 31%
- Big moves recorded
- 3 (latest November 11, 2026)
- Venues
- Kalshi $6K 24h volume
- Closes
- January 1, 2027
- Tracked since
- November 10, 2026
- Last updated
Cite this market
Copy and paste, with the link. Odds are from Kalshi, shown here for information only.
Prediction markets put the chance of will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027 at 15% as of November 12, 2026 (Callquake, https://callquake.com/markets/will-pete-hegseth-be-out-as-secretary-of-defense-before-jan-1-2027-before-jan-1).Need a price that never changes? Permanent link to this moment (the page keeps the price recorded at 08:20 UTC).